The 2024 Advertising Arms Race
Because unprecedented times call for unprecedented spending, right?
Welcome to this week’s issue of Noise Level, where we examine the modern digital media landscape and its impact on our lives, relationships, and American society at large. Conor Gaughan takes the wheel today while Soren is enjoying his honeymoon! Trigger Warning: Today we’re talking election advertising (which was almost too traumatic for me to write about, but I’m going to be brave).
In the earliest days, the local town square was the center of our civic, political and cultural lives… and all that noise. These same conversations have since shifted to radio, television, and now… the dreaded internet, where over the last few years we’ve experienced an explosion in innovation—from streaming services where we can binge The Great British Bake Off, to tweet threads where news breaks. Now, we live our lives online and attached to our smartphones, with constant content consumption, fueled by advertisers aiming to win our attention and our money every minute of the day.
Think about every Holiday Season, when Black Friday marks a hijacking of our screens, watercoolers and mind-share, as consumerism inhales all the oxygen in our collective conversation. Why? As Danny DeVito said, “Everybody needs money. That’s why they call it money.” In other words, big box retailers, direct-to-consumer brands and everyone in between purchases up every inch of attention real estate from our newsfeeds to our nightly news.
Likewise, every four years America’s focus shifts—often against our will—to the deafening noise of the presidential election. This year is no different, except for the incredible acceleration we’ve seen over the last three weeks, and the spending promises candidates have made leading up to the DNC and then some.
The Dam Has Broken
In the wake of President Biden’s withdrawal and VP Harris’ rise as the presumptive Democratic nominee, we’ve witnessed an explosion in campaign activity—from coconuts to rallies that rival summer music festivals to an explosion in political ad spending. The Harris/Walz campaign has effectively broken the dam, unleashing a torrent of ad dollars (and sold a record number of camo hat merch) that has set off an arms race in political advertising.
The Harris/Walz campaign’s aggressive spending could be interpreted as a strategic move to make the most of the 77 days we have left until November 5th. Unlike Trump, who has nearly universal name recognition, the Harris/Walz ticket has to introduce their platform and messaging to the country within an exceptionally compressed timeframe.
According to recent data, political advertising for August alone is projected to reach a staggering $280.8 million, with Democrats slightly outspending Republicans at $151 million to $129.9 million. This represents an increase in ad spending like we’ve never seen before—August 2024 spending is already more than quadruple that of August 2016.
This is in addition to recent announcements from both camps, and these are assumed to be television alone:
Trump’s main super PAC, MAGA Inc. announced a $100 million ad buy concentrated in seven swing states for the last 2.5 weeks of August.
The Harris campaign then responded with a $90 million buy, which is their largest yet.
We are closely following (our friends at FWIW are the best source for this) the digital spend trends across Meta, Google and other channels. And, since the beginning of the Harris campaign, their digital spending has gone gangbusters, with at least a combined $45 million spent across these channels in the last three weeks alone.
Fortifying The Bubbles: How the Money Is Being Used
While the sheer amount of money being spent is eye-watering, it’s equally important to consider how it’s being deployed. A significant portion of digital ad spending appears to be reinforcing existing support and biases, rather than persuading undecided voters.
Interestingly, platforms like Meta (Instagram & Facebook) and Google (includes Youtube) remain relatively universal in reaching voters across the political spectrum. However, we’re seeing increased spending on platforms that cater to specific demographics or ideological leanings (Conservatives on Twitter, Progressives on Snapchat, etc), undoubtedly reinforcing individual information bubbles and increasing polarization.
Evolving Strategies In An Increasingly Opaque Digital Advertising World
As major platforms restrict micro-targeting capabilities across the board, but especially for political ads, advertisers are being forced to adapt their strategies (thanks, Cambridge Analytica). And the approach is becoming more akin to traditional TV advertising, where campaigns focus on matching their opponents’ spending in key markets across all channels, rather than pinpointing specific voter segments, as was the approach throughout the 2010s. This has been evidenced in the meteoric spending seen by the Harris campaign in the last few weeks across digital, and we’ll see if it continues in the weeks ahead.
Many firms are even recommending a shift back to more traditional formats, with publishers like Washington Post and Gannet boasting record quarters. This shift is particularly evident in battleground states like Pennsylvania, where ad spending has reached jaw dropping levels. Of the more than $110 million spent across seven swing states since July 22, roughly $42 million has gone to PA alone, more than double the next highest state. Seriously, check these numbers out.
With all of this, we’ve noticed a trend that is absolutely not demure, not at all mindful when it comes to frequency capping ads (which ensures users don’t see ads more than a certain amount of times to prevent message fatigue). With the amount of money being poured into advertising channels in this short timeframe, all bets are essentially off—and as we’re sure you’ve noticed—no newsfeed, timeline, or inbox is immune to the flood of information.
What Are The Implications Of This Ad Blitz?
More money is being poured into the screens, and ultimately the hearts and minds of Americans coast to coast. As the election cycle progresses, it will be crucial to keep an eye on these evolving tactics and record-breaking spending. The shift in strategy, combined with the sheer volume of information, raises important questions about the impact on voter perceptions and the overall health of our democratic discourse.
Interestingly, amid the blitz, we’re seeing a focus from the Harris campaign on more positive, unifying messaging. This approach of course stands in contrast to the MAGA-fueled, us vs. them tone that has characterized the last decade or so of political advertising.
As we approach November, Noise Level will continue to monitor these trends and their potential impacts on our democracy. We’ll be paying close attention to:
How the massive influx of spending affects voter engagement and turnout
Whether the shift away from microtargeting actually leads to more inclusive political discourse—or simply more noise.
The receipt and effectiveness of positive, unifying messaging in a landscape often dominated by attack ads.
And long term, the potential consequences the 2024 ad arms race has on future elections and campaign finance.
We need a drink … Over and out.
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